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  1. Relative sea level in San Francisco, California

     

San Francisco, Golden Gate

Feet above 1991-2009 mean

MEDIAN

LIKELY RANGE

1- IN-20 CHANCE

1- IN-200 CHANCE


 

Year

50% probability SLR meets or exceeds… 67% probability
 SLR is between…
5% probability
 SLR meets or exceeds…
0.5% probability
SLR meets or exceeds…

2030

0.4

0.3 — 0.5

0.6

0.8

2050

0.9

0.6 — 1.1

1.4

1.9

2100 (RCP 2.6)

1.6

1.0 — 2.4

3.2

5.7

2100 (RCP 4.5)

1.9

1.2 — 2.7

3.5

5.9

2100 (RCP 8.5)

2.5

1.6 — 3.4

4.4

6.9

2100 (H++)

10


 


 


 

2150 (RCP 2.6)

2.4

1.3 — 3.8

5.5

11.0

2150 (RCP 4.5)

3.0

1.7 — 4.6

6.4

11.7

2150 (RCP 8.5)

4.1

2.8 — 5.8

7.7

13.0

2150 (H++)

22


 


 


 


SLR = Sea Level Rise

RCP 8.5 is consistent with a future in which there are no significant global efforts to limit or reduce emissions. 
RCP 2.6 is a stringent emissions reduction scenario and assumes that global greenhouse gas emissions will be significantly curtailed. Under this scenario, global CO2 emissions decline by about 70% between 2015 and 2050, to zero by 2080, and below zero thereafter [33].

 ‘Representative Concentration Pathways’, or RCPs. These are a set of four future pathways, named for the associated radiative forcing (the globally averaged heat trapping capacity of the atmosphere measured in watts/square meter) level in 2100 relative to pre-industrial values: RCP 8.5, 6.0, 4.5 and 2.6 [32].

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